Untitled

Author
(not verified)
Posted in: , on 3. Oct. 2001 - 17:56

Dear Powder / Bulk People,

An American consulting company has sent me the following message and I would like to ask you to post your comments here, since this question is of considerable importance to many companies around the world. We should perhaps not restrict our comments to the European situation but also include the situation in North America and other areas.

The many visitors to this Forum will be interested in what you may have to contribute. Thank you.

Quote *******

Do you have any feel for what impact the current U. S. economic slowdown is having on the powder and bulk solids markets in Europe or what predictions are for the next couple of quarters? We have been asked to talk about that subject at an upcoming international conference. With the latest bleak news from Wall Street, it's hard for us to know from our limited perspective what expectations are for our industry not only here in the U. S. but abroad. However, with your many connections to the industry, perhaps you have a better feel for what European companies are planning to do or are saying they will do in the next six months to a year. Perhaps that's a subject that has been addressed recently or will be addressed soon in your publication. Do you have any insight you can offer?

We would very much appreciate it if you would post that question to your online readers.

Unquote *******

Crystal Ball

Erstellt am 3. Oct. 2001 - 10:51

Sorry but my crystal ball has rolled off the table and split in two. Seriously, we see a nervousness in the marketplace but this atmosphere has prevailed for more than 5 years. This is a difficult business to forecast as the projects are usually very large with budgets in the US$ 100's of millions and sometimes exceeding US$ billion. The clients do not make decisions quickly or without much second guessing. The recent events have definitely put a damper on the business atmosphere in NA, SA and Europe but the fallout will surely take several months, maybe years. No one can guess the outcome over the next year but it's pretty well understood that things will not get better.

Entropy is increasing, that's a fundamental law of science. That bag of marbles that you dropped on the floor when a child have yet to return to the bag by themselves. When they do, maybe it will be a better world. We are one race from one planet with one superior; it's too bad that we all don't share a mutual respect for our neighbours.

Steve Harrington P.Eng Krupp Canada Inc.
Author
(not verified)

Powder & Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 4. Oct. 2001 - 01:13

In general I can say there is a slight slow down, most compagnies waiting a few months with investments, but still go on.

So we may have a dip within the next 2 or three months and thereafter everything is back to normal.

Cyp Wagenaar

> Director of Marketing

> Mesys BV

> The Netherlands

> www: http://www.mesys.nl

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 4. Oct. 2001 - 01:28

Sir,

we do have the impression that no direct consequences will take place for planned projects in our market following the 11th September attack.

Nevertheless we do feel a certain reluctance from client's side to make any capital investment up to the moment the worldwide political situation will be more transparent.

It is really more a psychological barrier then a logical reason.

Sincerely yours,

Ing.David B.Arrosh

Sales Manager

Fuller Kovako B.V.

david.arrosh@fuller-kovako.com

Re:

Erstellt am 4. Oct. 2001 - 02:36

I work at a company designing and building food processing plants. I do up-front planning and budgeting. Our clients have resurrected idle projects and started new projects since Sept 11. We are busier now than before. Some of these projects include significant bulk material handling systems. Of course, some of these projects will never get executed but I feel optimistic.

vgranquist
(not verified)

Re:

Erstellt am 4. Oct. 2001 - 03:07

As I am involved mainly in the fertilizer and related markets, I can only comment on this area. Clearly, capital projects are delayed or cancelled, but is mainly due to the weak economic situation in this industry segment. I do not believe that the events of Sept 11 have any significant bearing on the situation. However, we should not underestimate the indirect fallout of recent events. There is a tremendous amount of "domino effects" occurring throughout the American economy, and this will have some negative effects on the bulk solids industry as a whole.

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis

Erstellt am 4. Oct. 2001 - 04:31

The only message we have based on the poor buying response ( last 10 months) from our customers:

a- tighten your belt -double- strong

b- understand that your U.S. customers (processors) at times have laid off plant managers and process engineers by now. Often times their jobs are

handled by maintenance personal. As a supplier you need to adjust your expectations accordingly. Help the overworked maintenance man, who now has 3

jobs, and is still nervous that his plant may be closed and transplanted to Mexico or China.

c- invent rapidly new product features. Be first ! Keep in mind your competitor is laying off design engineers and marketing personal day by day. President Bush said yesterday: "We are an entrepreneurial country. "

Bulk / Powder people need to act as entrepreneurs again.

d- start gorilla marketing, if you do not do it, your competitor will do it anyway. The recession will last at least until 4th quarter of 2002. You need to offer cut-throat pricing.

e- as an US equipment manufacturer, observe the progress of Indian / Chinese processors / markets. Growth is there. China is a full partner of the world

trade organization as of the end of this year. For a lot of US equipment manufacturers the train is gone when it comes to the China market, where a worker costs US $ 80.00 / month. Besides global terrorism, there is global

powder/bulk marketing. Touch screen, PLC-powered equipment controls are nothing new to those markets. Whoever wants to survive the next 16 months is forced to wake up today or better retire this afternoon. Small US equipment manufacturers / fabricators don't believe it - they cannot be helped any more if they do not get themselves a passport and travel the Far East to see

for themselves.

f- understand that the Japanese have the highest unemployment rate since World War 2. Even zero financing does not help their industry any more.

Hope this helps your US friend,

Suzy Hill

T&T Technology

734 North LaSalle Street

Chicago, IL 60610

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 4. Oct. 2001 - 04:41

As far as I know my company is still planning on making planned capital purchases. A couple larger items may be pushed back by a quarter or so.

Mr. Will Shambley

Materials Processing Engineer

Z Corporation

Burlington, MA 01803

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 4. Oct. 2001 - 04:49

That question regarding what European companies are doing could probably be better answered by my colleagues Mr. Brian Holmes and Mr. Mike Redmond at Hägglunds U.K.

From our perspective here in North America, we have seen a slight slowdown of activity in Alberta, Canada (Oil Sands) and this will probably worsen if oil prices continue to stay low. We will continue to particpate as normal and even step up our person-to-person contacts with the people involved in the powder and bulk community and see if we can continue to assist our customers in achieving a better output and product.

Regards,

Fredrik Lindner

Marketing Coordinator

Hägglunds Drives Inc.

Columbus, OH 43228

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 4. Oct. 2001 - 05:17

I personally do not own a crystal ball so, I rely more upon my gut feeling, which by the way, is so accurate that it is sometimes scary. Call it intuition.

From the perspective of a capital equipment and machinery manufacturer, I believe that most processors have, unfortunately, put all new projects on

hold. This is not surprising considering the downturn in the economy and the decreased demand for durable and consumer goods.

The only area where I see potential, for new capital equipment sales, is in the pharmaceutical, nutraceutical, and food supplement areas.

For the next three years, I believe that processors will be spending more money on maintenance and repair of existing equipment. As for equipment replacements, this will be a good time for used equipment dealers.

Original equipment manufacturers, such as ourselves, need to give more attention to repair parts sales and service and expand service to include the rebuilding and refurbishing of equipment and machinery.

Best regards,

Kirk C. Wiggins

Commercial Manager

Carver, Inc.

Savannah, GA 31408

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 4. Oct. 2001 - 05:26

I appreciate the opportunity to comment on various issues.

As you are aware, the economy is slow. However, it has been observed by me to be both regional and based on certain industry. My primary industry here in Houston, TX. is the plastics and petrochem. While our

customers are spending some money, it is strictly for only those items that are absolutely needed. Even then, it asked that MRO items be made to last as long as possible. This will certainly effect companies from

Europe that supply equipment to this industry.

One bright spot that I know of here in Houston is JVI (Joest Vibratech, Inc.). They are very busy and are having a banner year. JVI is a joint venture of NAVCO (National Air Vibrator Co.) and Joest of Germany. In

that respect here is a European company that, so far, has gained in light of current and previous economic events. There are some "grass roots" plants that are still in the construction phase. In general, the

engineering houses related to Bulk Solids are slow.

This neglect and spending reduction cannot last forever. I foresee, and I believe most will agree with me, that this should reverse itself by year's end. Our office in Dallas is very busy. However, there market is

more diversified - mineral, mining, cement, and general manufacturing.

The biggest problem for our friends in Europe will be travel and getting shipments in and out of this country. Security will be very tight.

This is how I see it at this time.

Sincerely,

Ross M. Jamison

Mass Technologies, Inc.

Houston, TX 77070

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 4. Oct. 2001 - 05:54

The present economy here in the USA has without question been impacted negatively by the events of the September 11th 2001 tragedy. However the economy was on a two year down swing, even before this tragic event occurred but it is now having a deepening effect.

The economy was and is still relatively strong, but it is not seemingly getting better, because most everyone is taking a "wait and see" attitude. But the slowdown is real and many projects ( hard goods related ) previously planned, are being put off indefinitely. Our tourism industry and many industries associated with it, have even taken a big setback.

Will the business come back, yes it will. But from all indications, it would appear that we will see a delay of at least 4 to 5 quarters, before we see real recovery. Many things are in the works which can change this

economy, but the direction is still on the downswing and it must be reversed. Our great President in my opinion, is keenly aware of this problem and is taking many positive steps to reverse the direction on the economy.

The looming war has many business leaders uncertain as to what and how to proceed. Many consumers as well are in a holding position as well and their

investments in the stock market have taken some tremendous down swings and older retired people are even more worried.

I am not trying to preach "doom and gloom" but this situation is here with us at this time and we cannot say it is not a big concern. However, I think now is the time in the business world, to take advantage of this slow down and position one's company for the future and do the things internally which you now have time for.

Regards: James R. Steele: President

Dynamic Air Inc.

1125 Willow Lake Blvd.

St. Paul, MN 55110

USA

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 4. Oct. 2001 - 07:00

We are a Canadian consulting company and our economy follows that of the US because 80% of our trade is with the US. The bulk handling industry in

Canada has been extremely slow the past three months and we anticipate this slow period to last well into 2002.

Lou Bruno, M.A.Sc., P.Eng.

Manager, Mineral Handling and Processing

H. G. Engineering Ltd.

Toronto, ON M9W 5X9, Canada

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 4. Oct. 2001 - 07:06

My answer to this is that the UK international suppliers were having a challenge before this due to unfavourable currency exchange rates, the UK market has been depressed for some time.

However, recently it had looked as though things were on the way up. Post 11th September I think it is too early to say, however I believe everyone is expecting the market to get more difficult and may have talked themselves into the situation.

Regards,

Doug Hacking

Clyde Materials Handling Ltd.

Basford, Nottingham, NG6 0DT

U.K.

Rick Dreyer
(not verified)

Re:

Erstellt am 4. Oct. 2001 - 08:17

I requested input from the person who handles our International Sales. His response below is based on the capital equipment (crushers) market we sell to worldwide.

Probably ONLY the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) will escape any economic fallout from the terrorist attacks in the USA. We at Gundlach believe it will be the middle of 2002 at the earliest before the U.S. economy recovers. With little change in Japans gloomy outlook, both the Asian Tigers (S.Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore), and the Asian Cubs (Thailand and Malaysia) will show no growth until the U.S. economy picks up. Europe, which is less dependent on the U.S. will not suffer as much. In fact with the launch of the actual Euro in January 2002, they may get an influx of capital.

Another terror-event or a mis-fire in the anticipated U.S. led Alliance response could have a disastrous effect on ANY projection.

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 5. Oct. 2001 - 08:39

My name is Swaminathan. I am a Project Engineering Consultant and I undertake detailed engineering of small to medium sized projects. I am also a specialist in unit operations of Mixing and Drying.

Presently the situation in the country is rather bleak and no new projects are being undertaking due to the very high uncertainty which has been there for the last two years and the same has been fortified by the recent attack on the WTC.

There is not even the slightest hint as to when we can expect any turn around.

I hope I have conveyed my views on the subject.

Regards,

Swaminathan

Mumbai - 400 076

India

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 5. Oct. 2001 - 09:21

We at Packard Equipment Corporation see a good future ahead and we do believe that the recent event in our city of New York will help us to shape our activities and progress all the way around.

To those that shape goodness, goodness will come.

Regards,

John Rivera van Devere

Packard Equipment Corp.

Miami, FL 33172

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 5. Oct. 2001 - 09:33

I believe that it is inevitable that the economic slowdown in the US will impact business in the bulk and powder industry. I don't feel anyone can state with any degree of certainty how long or deep the impact will be. The current geo-political situation will drive the issue in my opinion. The impact will vary greatly by industry. Right now, long cycle time industries

such as power are not experiencing much of an impact. However, if the economic downturn persists for an extended period then the long cycle industries will slow down as well.

William M. O'Donnell

Vice President, International Business

United Conveyor Corporation

Waukegan, IL 60085-6753

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 5. Oct. 2001 - 09:49

The strong US$ has hurt export sales in the US. However, now with the slowing down of the US economy I think exports will increase. However, the switching to the EU currency is going to cause a slow down.

My customers are not buying what they were one year ago.

Sincerely,

Leigh Kirtley

International Sales

Sweny-Kern Bird Seed

Madison, MS 39110

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis

Erstellt am 5. Oct. 2001 - 11:14

For a company operating in rather small niche areas, it's difficult to give any general comment to any impact US economic slow down would have on European

companies, but we expect the first signs of any recession to be seen in the maintenance market. We are of the opinion that this market actually has cooled

down slightly the last month, but we are still not alarmed due to normal cyclic variations.

Regards,

Per Turnes

Business Manager

Elkem ASA, Materials

4675 Kristiansand S.

Norway

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 5. Oct. 2001 - 11:34

We cannot provide an informed opinion regarding the effect of the U.S. economic slowdown on the European market. We are forecasting sustained growth for 2002 in our primary market - Western U.S..

Bill Poulsen, Jr.

The William Poulsen Co., Inc.

Los Angeles, CA 90041

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 5. Oct. 2001 - 11:34

We cannot provide an informed opinion regarding the effect of the U.S. economic slowdown on the European market. We are forecasting sustained growth for 2002 in our primary market - Western U.S..

Bill Poulsen, Jr.

The William Poulsen Co., Inc.

Los Angeles, CA 90041

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 5. Oct. 2001 - 01:50

You have asked the million dollar question. I do not believe we can predict at this time what impact the incident will have on capital spending. We are not seeing any delays or cancellations of projects for those current active projects; however, we don't know if we will experience any delays in projects that were planned for next 3-12 months.

Mr. Charles S. Alack

President & CEO

Semi-Bulk Systems, Inc.

Fenton, MO 63026-2543

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 5. Oct. 2001 - 01:50

You have asked the million dollar question. I do not believe we can predict at this time what impact the incident will have on capital spending. We are not seeing any delays or cancellations of projects for those current active projects; however, we don't know if we will experience any delays in projects that were planned for next 3-12 months.

Mr. Charles S. Alack

President & CEO

Semi-Bulk Systems, Inc.

Fenton, MO 63026-2543

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 5. Oct. 2001 - 07:21

We feel that there will be very little impact, as a matter of fact the market has been very aggressive tor the last month and it looks like it will be that way for the rest of the year after a very slow two years.



John Simonieg

President

PME Process Materials & Equipment Corp

Rockwall, TX 75032

USA

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 5. Oct. 2001 - 07:21

We feel that there will be very little impact, as a matter of fact the market has been very aggressive tor the last month and it looks like it will be that way for the rest of the year after a very slow two years.



John Simonieg

President

PME Process Materials & Equipment Corp

Rockwall, TX 75032

USA

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 5. Oct. 2001 - 07:36

I do not expect any slowdown in our business regarding this industry.

Wall Street is as far from us and our world as Kabul.

We were not upbeat two years ago when the US was dreaming of a never ending growth and we are not concerned about today panic.

This activity is pretty constant and the feeling of people has little to do with our order book.

No one has never ordered a belt because they were happy to do so. And they will order belt even if they are in very bad shape, because they need it to survive...

Companies in bulk handling are pretty much the same. No glamour. No tragedy.

Best Regards.

Jean-Paul Pelissou

Export Manager

SEMPERIT SFBT

95104 Argenteuil Cedex

France

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 5. Oct. 2001 - 07:36

I do not expect any slowdown in our business regarding this industry.

Wall Street is as far from us and our world as Kabul.

We were not upbeat two years ago when the US was dreaming of a never ending growth and we are not concerned about today panic.

This activity is pretty constant and the feeling of people has little to do with our order book.

No one has never ordered a belt because they were happy to do so. And they will order belt even if they are in very bad shape, because they need it to survive...

Companies in bulk handling are pretty much the same. No glamour. No tragedy.

Best Regards.

Jean-Paul Pelissou

Export Manager

SEMPERIT SFBT

95104 Argenteuil Cedex

France

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 6. Oct. 2001 - 11:21

For the immediate future we assume that we have to deal with a slowdown of capital expenditures, at least as far as the US market is concerned.However, we don't see this as a long lasting situation and expect a rebound no later than the first or second quarter of 2002.

Sincerely

Gisbert Schall

President

DRAISWERKE,INC.

Mahwah, NJ 07430

USA

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 6. Oct. 2001 - 11:21

For the immediate future we assume that we have to deal with a slowdown of capital expenditures, at least as far as the US market is concerned.However, we don't see this as a long lasting situation and expect a rebound no later than the first or second quarter of 2002.

Sincerely

Gisbert Schall

President

DRAISWERKE,INC.

Mahwah, NJ 07430

USA

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 8. Oct. 2001 - 02:14

Sorry it has taken a little while to respond but I have done a little ringing around to get a broader feel for the market conditions.

We tend to focus on heavy bulk handling projects in the mining industry. It appears that there is little impact on current projects as a result of the US economic slow down.

However the mining industry tends to lag behind current market trends due to the long term planning nature of the industry. There is concern about the impact on markets and future projects in the Middle East following any military action by the US.

I hope this brief note will be of help to your correspondent.

Best regards

Graham Leason

Tech-A Ltd.

Wokingham, Berks. RG41 1JU

U.K.

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 8. Oct. 2001 - 02:14

Sorry it has taken a little while to respond but I have done a little ringing around to get a broader feel for the market conditions.

We tend to focus on heavy bulk handling projects in the mining industry. It appears that there is little impact on current projects as a result of the US economic slow down.

However the mining industry tends to lag behind current market trends due to the long term planning nature of the industry. There is concern about the impact on markets and future projects in the Middle East following any military action by the US.

I hope this brief note will be of help to your correspondent.

Best regards

Graham Leason

Tech-A Ltd.

Wokingham, Berks. RG41 1JU

U.K.

GemcoValve
(not verified)

Economic Effect Of September 11.

Erstellt am 8. Oct. 2001 - 05:53

Now nearly 4 weeks after the tragedy I have a chance to survey (very unscientifically) most of our customers who had active projects. I have found that they are all proceeding with plans and any changes were put down to normal business reasons not connected to September 11. One reseller in Europe was concerned that US companies might be more inclined to site new projects on the homeland rather than abroad. I'd be interested to hear reactions to this.

Regards,

Jim Lenihan

General Manager

http://www.GemcoValve.com

GemcoValve
(not verified)

Economic Effect Of September 11.

Erstellt am 8. Oct. 2001 - 05:53

Now nearly 4 weeks after the tragedy I have a chance to survey (very unscientifically) most of our customers who had active projects. I have found that they are all proceeding with plans and any changes were put down to normal business reasons not connected to September 11. One reseller in Europe was concerned that US companies might be more inclined to site new projects on the homeland rather than abroad. I'd be interested to hear reactions to this.

Regards,

Jim Lenihan

General Manager

http://www.GemcoValve.com

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 8. Oct. 2001 - 09:33

It is my opinion that the slow down in the U.S. is having an impact worldwide. Many U.S. companies have business ventures abroad and with cut backs in the U.S., it just seems logical that they would have cutbacks internationally.

We are all so tied into each others economies that we are all sensitive to positive or negative news.

Mr. Ray Vrtiska, VP Sales

InterSystems, Inc.

http://www.intersystems-inc.com

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 8. Oct. 2001 - 09:33

It is my opinion that the slow down in the U.S. is having an impact worldwide. Many U.S. companies have business ventures abroad and with cut backs in the U.S., it just seems logical that they would have cutbacks internationally.

We are all so tied into each others economies that we are all sensitive to positive or negative news.

Mr. Ray Vrtiska, VP Sales

InterSystems, Inc.

http://www.intersystems-inc.com

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 11. Oct. 2001 - 07:51

I have been asked to comment on the impact on the Powder and Bulk Solids (PBS) worldwide market due to the economical slowdown in the USA.

I have to state it in the beginning that I am not a fortuneteller and do not have a crystal ball to see the future. If I would be, many heads of States, politicians, and business people would look for my advice and would employ me.

The answer for this question cannot be separated from the political situation, especially since the September 11 terrorist attack on the US Military installation and Financial center.

The question for the next few years is when and in what extend will the US, the EU and the coalition allies will switch to a wartime economy. This could change raw material consumption and construction related to PBS market. It is not appropriate to predict the PBS market in the next 6 months or year, as I was asked.

In any case, the answer should be separated into the following items:

1. New plant construction, replacement, rehabilitation of existing plants

2. Raw material consumption

3. Heavy Bulk Material such as iron ore (and related material for steel making), metallurgical and steam coal, bauxite, etc. This sector has reached a saturation point. Hardly any new iron ore mines, processing and handling facility will be needed. Even in a wartime economy one cannot expect increased demand. In this type of war, steel will not be needed for building tanks, because many of them were lost in large tank battles, or building new aircraft carriers. New skyscrapers would use less steel and more concrete.

The US will build many new coal fired power plants, because the recent energy crises. This will need new, pollution free technology, large amount of turbines, boilers, but relatively small amount of coal handling equipment. Metallurgical coal consumption is gradually declining, but steam coal is in demand. For new equipment supply and technology transfer, the best market is still China and maybe India. Selected equipment maybe replaced in aging plants and the limited number of suppliers will fight for the contracts.

4. Light Bulk Material, which would include all what is necessary for food production, consumer items (drugs, household items), automobiles, and pleasure/vacation/recreation-oriented industrial items. The US Government is helping the consumer-oriented industry to pull the economy out from the recession. (Large loans to struggling airline industry, tax breaks, capital gain tax reductions, very low borrowing rates). This would require new plants, new processing, manufacturing and distribution centers. The political and security question may come up to the investor, whether the new plants will be built in the consuming country (US, EU, Japan, etc.) because terrorist attack, or it may be built in a “safer country” which can provide sufficient manpower and inexpensive labor. One cannot predict which will be the “safe country” for large capital investment.

The answer for all this should be clearer after the “real fighting” would start. Who is going to be on the side of the Terrorist and who will fight for worldwide security?

A long duration war could result in a major interruption of the Middle East oil supply, which could result in a depression all over the western world. In this area very little market potential for the PBS industry. Whether this would result in revolutions, uprising and political unrest is the “64,000 dollar question”.

Unless very careful and delicate political policy is made, to pacify the situation and find a peaceful solution for the elimination of the Terrorist movement and the harboring countries, I see serious problems for the PBS industry as well for the inhabitants of this Planet.

Best regards,

Andrew T Zador

President

ATZ Consultant

New York, New York

Author
(not verified)

Powder / Bulk Quo Vadis?

Erstellt am 11. Oct. 2001 - 07:51

I have been asked to comment on the impact on the Powder and Bulk Solids (PBS) worldwide market due to the economical slowdown in the USA.

I have to state it in the beginning that I am not a fortuneteller and do not have a crystal ball to see the future. If I would be, many heads of States, politicians, and business people would look for my advice and would employ me.

The answer for this question cannot be separated from the political situation, especially since the September 11 terrorist attack on the US Military installation and Financial center.

The question for the next few years is when and in what extend will the US, the EU and the coalition allies will switch to a wartime economy. This could change raw material consumption and construction related to PBS market. It is not appropriate to predict the PBS market in the next 6 months or year, as I was asked.

In any case, the answer should be separated into the following items:

1. New plant construction, replacement, rehabilitation of existing plants

2. Raw material consumption

3. Heavy Bulk Material such as iron ore (and related material for steel making), metallurgical and steam coal, bauxite, etc. This sector has reached a saturation point. Hardly any new iron ore mines, processing and handling facility will be needed. Even in a wartime economy one cannot expect increased demand. In this type of war, steel will not be needed for building tanks, because many of them were lost in large tank battles, or building new aircraft carriers. New skyscrapers would use less steel and more concrete.

The US will build many new coal fired power plants, because the recent energy crises. This will need new, pollution free technology, large amount of turbines, boilers, but relatively small amount of coal handling equipment. Metallurgical coal consumption is gradually declining, but steam coal is in demand. For new equipment supply and technology transfer, the best market is still China and maybe India. Selected equipment maybe replaced in aging plants and the limited number of suppliers will fight for the contracts.

4. Light Bulk Material, which would include all what is necessary for food production, consumer items (drugs, household items), automobiles, and pleasure/vacation/recreation-oriented industrial items. The US Government is helping the consumer-oriented industry to pull the economy out from the recession. (Large loans to struggling airline industry, tax breaks, capital gain tax reductions, very low borrowing rates). This would require new plants, new processing, manufacturing and distribution centers. The political and security question may come up to the investor, whether the new plants will be built in the consuming country (US, EU, Japan, etc.) because terrorist attack, or it may be built in a “safer country” which can provide sufficient manpower and inexpensive labor. One cannot predict which will be the “safe country” for large capital investment.

The answer for all this should be clearer after the “real fighting” would start. Who is going to be on the side of the Terrorist and who will fight for worldwide security?

A long duration war could result in a major interruption of the Middle East oil supply, which could result in a depression all over the western world. In this area very little market potential for the PBS industry. Whether this would result in revolutions, uprising and political unrest is the “64,000 dollar question”.

Unless very careful and delicate political policy is made, to pacify the situation and find a peaceful solution for the elimination of the Terrorist movement and the harboring countries, I see serious problems for the PBS industry as well for the inhabitants of this Planet.

Best regards,

Andrew T Zador

President

ATZ Consultant

New York, New York

Nathan
(not verified)

Re:

Erstellt am 24. Oct. 2001 - 05:44

The 11th September attack, surely emphasized the general economic slow down which began few years ago. Customers and buyers seem to be waiting for something to happen, so it's quite difficult to predict what will be the general trend.

As far as we are concerned (we are mixer and plant maufacturers), we haven't been touched by the negative situations

Nathan
(not verified)

Re:

Erstellt am 24. Oct. 2001 - 05:44

The 11th September attack, surely emphasized the general economic slow down which began few years ago. Customers and buyers seem to be waiting for something to happen, so it's quite difficult to predict what will be the general trend.

As far as we are concerned (we are mixer and plant maufacturers), we haven't been touched by the negative situations